Everyone who has ever made a bet or considered making a bet on a soccer game has probably considered whether or not it is possible to make a smarter prediction. The short answer to this question is, yes, it is, with some work. The following model and rundown will explain how you can increase the intelligence of the bets that you are making in order to hopefully make more money when betting on soccer games.
The Four Main Variables
There are four main variables that need to be considered when you are making a bet on a judi bola game or on a particular team. These are data driven variables, so research will be required. The first two variables are both teams’ goal differentials during the current season. A goal differential is an easily calculated number. It is points scored by a single team divided by the points conceded by that same team, multiplied by 100. The bigger this number, the better. In the case of a tie, the overall points scored is used as the tiebreaker. The second two variables used are both teams total points scored during the prior season. Data will need to be collected, obviously for this approach to work.
The Actual Model
There are several different statistical models that you can use to further your approach, but this is not always a necessary step. If one of the teams playing is significantly outclassed, it may be easy to tell what team is going to win. If the game is set to be a bit closer, do some research about different, specific models, such as the Random Forest Model, the Probit Model, or others. Some people also just make the game predictions as straight percentages, but this approach has some drawbacks. It is also recommended to test your choice of model with a benchmark. Pick a game that has already occurred, or pick a few games, and see if they line up with how the model states that they should. This can be a great way of assessing accuracy.
Results and Conclusions
Once you have done research on the different teams and fully developed your method of betting, you can then start trying to more accurately predict matches. This will also allow you to make smarter bets on soccer games. If you model does not perform well, consider adding more variables. More forms of analysis will be helpful. It is also a good idea to remember that no matter how many models you build and how much research you do, there is still always a degree of randomness that is inherent to sports. This is why they are exciting to be on. While this guide will help you bet a little smarter, there is no way to ever know the outcomes for sure.
